Crop Report August 15th 2016

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Moisture levels increased this past week with plenty of rain across the state. Some areas, east-central Iowa for example have quite a surplus due to flooding rains last week. Elsewhere the moisture levels are higher, but this isn’t hurting crops a whole lot. Corn, Soybeans and Hay are mainly in good to excellent condition with only a small portion in fair or poor. Livestock conditions were reported to be normal across the state. The oat crop is almost completely harvested and the third cutting of hay is nearing an end as well. Corn and soybeans are running about a week ahead of normal. SDS was reported in some soybean fields. You can read the rest of the report https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Iowa/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/2016/IA_Crop_Progress_08_15_16.pdf

The Weekend Will Be Nice and Dry!

THE WEEKEND AFTER THE TROPICAL STORM: Some more rain is forecast today across the state with the best chances across the southeastern counties. There may be some dry periods but any sunshine looks to be in the far northwestern counties later in the day. If the activity moves out a bit faster we may see some sunshine further south and east. Heavy rain is still possible although quite a bit fell yesterday and last evening especially in the eastern counties. Highs today will be in the upper 70s across the northeast to the lower and middle 80s elsewhere. The weekend though will be a much different story with much lower humidity, lower temperatures and plenty of sunshine. Highs this weekend will be in the upper 70s to the lower and middle 80s. A perfect opportunity to head to the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS is still showing the slow moving tropical feature currently along the central gulf coast skirting our southeastern counties late Monday into early Tuesday with a chance of some rain at that time. The rest of the state will remain mainly dry, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the 80s. As we head into the middle and end of the week, temperatures look to slowly rise through the 80s to the lower 90s mainly in the western half of the state. A frontal system will be approaching the state from the west and northwest as we look at next Friday into the following weekend. This could bring more rainfall to the state to end the fair at that time. A more detailed look will be forthcoming early next week.

SCHOOL BELLS: Looking through the rest of the extended period that takes us through the first days of school for many, some cooler air is shown to follow the system next weekend with readings possibly in the 70s to lower 80s. However the GFS is showing temperatures rising back into the 80s to near 90s before cooling off once again at the end of the period. Some activity is possible but looks to be widely scattered at this time. No trends really showing up in the extended period at this time, so confidence is low in this solution for this time period.

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©2016 Iowa Weather Network

Stormy Start

WORKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND: It looks to be a stormy day across the state, however it won’t be a wash out as there will be some dry periods with some possible sunshine around. Another day of heat and humidity will be in store as well with readings in the 80s and lower 90s. Heat indices will be in the 90s and lower 100s by the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon hours and through the area during the evening and overnight. Another chance is possible on Friday as well with cooler readings. Some of the storms could become strong, but widespread severe weather looks unlikely at this time. Heavy rainfall is a possibility with rainfall amounts exceeding an inch in many areas. Looking at the weekend, drier and cooler air will filter in and it will be fell much better at the fairgrounds. Highs in the lower 80s in Des Moines both days with the rest of the state seeing upper 70s to middle 80s.

SOME FLUIDITY: As we look at next week, the GFS is showing some precipitation chances creeping in late Monday into Tuesday across the southeastern counties of the state. This looks to be with an ongoing tropical cut-off low over the Gulf Coast currently being shunted to the northeast early next week. There is a lot of uncertainty with regards to these type of systems as they can be highly unpredictable. Right now we’ll look at a partly to mostly sunny Monday through Wednesday with an outside chance of rain mainly in the southeast. Readings during this period look to be mainly in the 80s. More model data will be needed to pinpoint this time period better. Thereafter, a frontal system is shown sweeping into the state toward the end of the week when shower and thunderstorms chances look to increase once more. As mentioned earlier, this could change depending on what we may see with this other feature earlier in the week. A lot of unknowns at this time.

INTO THE ABYSS: Looking at the rest of the extended period, the front mentioned coming into the state next weekend is shown to stall over the area through the 24th with several possible rounds of showers and storms. It doesn’t look as though it will be a complete washout, but time will tell with coming model runs. After this system moves off the rest of the period is shown to be quieter and cooler as well, similar to what we saw on the GFS yesterday.

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©2016 Iowa Weather Network

Into the Tropical Humidity Once More

TYPICAL SUMMER: Warm and humid conditions will be found today with partly to mostly sunny skies around. Highs will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the state. Heat indices will likely get as high as 105 in our western counties. A storm system will approach the state Thursday and Friday with chances of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could bring some heavy rainfall. This won’t be an all-day occurrence as there will be some sunshine around mainly on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will be similar to today with heat indices up and over 100 in many areas.

CHILLIN’: This coming weekend will be a perfect chance to head to the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, as there will be cooler temperatures and lower humidity levels as well. Highs will be in the lower 80s both days with plenty of sunshine around. Across the rest of the state, readings will range from the upper 70s across the northeastern counties to the middle 80s in the west.

NEXT WEEK: As we look at next week, readings will start to slowly inch higher as we head through the week. It will be dry to start out with readings in the 80s. We should see some lower 90s by the middle of the week in our western counties. The GFS is also hinting at some possible activity toward the middle of the week as well. Current thinking suggests that we could see some nocturnal activity moving along the edge of heat ridge that will be west of the state at that time. Timing of these events is very hard to predict even a day ahead of time and this is a week from now. We’ll keep watching models for any continued trend on this.

GET OUT THE PENCILS: As we look through the end of the fair and into the first week of school for some, the GFS is showing a frontal system dropping into the state on the last weekend of the fair. This would bring decent chances of rainfall at that time, if this were to occur. Thereafter the model indicates cooler air moving in for the rest of the period with readings below seasonal levels. Not really buying into this yet. We’ll need to see more consistency in the coming days before any confidence were to occur.

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©2016 Iowa Weather Network

Hot Tamales at the Fair

UPWARD TREND: Temperatures are heading up as we head toward the beginning of State Fair on Thursday. It will be mainly sunny across the state today and tomorrow with a few clouds from time to time. Highs today will be in the middle and upper 80s with middle 80s to middle 90s possible on Wednesday. Thursday will feature a few more clouds but stifling heat and humidity with readings in the upper 80s to middle 90s along with heat indices at or over 100. A quick fair forecast on Thursday would indicate a high in the lower to middle 90s with heat indices up to 105 with mostly sunny skies.

DROPPING OUT: A cold front will come in from the northwest late Thursday night into Friday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rainfall could be moderate to heavy. A strong storm could be possible as well. Late Friday through the weekend, skies will clear out and it will be a comfortable weekend for heading to the Fair in Des Moines with readings in the lower 80s and lower humidity as well. Temperatures across the entire state this weekend will be in the upper 70s northeast to the middle 80s south and southwest.

NEXT WEEK: Temperatures look to slowly rise once more as we head into next week with readings starting out Monday in the 80s and slowly moving toward the lower 90s in the western counties by either Tuesday or Wednesday. It looks to remain dry Monday and Tuesday with mostly sunny skies. Further into the extended period, warm temperatures look to return on Thursday and Friday of next week with readings in the upper 80s to the middle 90s. Another system is shown to drop in with more precipitation chances and cooler readings as we end the State Fair and begin the school year for some students. Precipitation is possible but timing is still unclear this far out.

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©2016 Iowa Weather Network

August 8th 2016 Crop Report

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No real change with the crop report this week with corn, soybeans and hay being in good to excellent condition. The oat crop is nearly harvested at over 90%. Corn and soybeans are running ahead of schedule in development which has been seen all year. There was no real stress to livestock this past week with pastures being in good to excellent shape as well. Moisture levels haven’t really changed a whole lot this week either, with the southern and southeastern counties remaining the driest due to abnormally dry conditions there. To read the whole crop report https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Iowa/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/2016/IA_Crop_Progress_08_08_16.pdf

Monkey See, Monkey Do

JUST ANOTHER PLEASANT VALLEY SUNDAY: You won’t need to take any train to Clarksville or anywhere in the state to have nice weather this weekend. It will be partly to mostly sunny with readings in the upper 70s to the middle 80s across the area. However there is a fly in the ointment and that is with some lingering showers that are possible in the southern counties today. We can’t really rule out any isolated activity across the far southern counties this weekend either, but it looks to be few and far between at this time.

HERE WE COME: Heading into next week, warmer air is shown to move back in. That will bring increased chances of showers and thunderstorms across the state beginning late Monday through the rest of the week. We can’t pinpoint who would get rain and at what time, but the chances will be around nevertheless. Highs will be in the 80s and 90s across the state with dew points likely in the upper 60s through the middle 70s once more. It doesn’t look to be a washout for the first few days of the Fair, just be aware of any activity that might be in the area if you happen to go. There is also a chance that we could see some nocturnal activity as well. Something we’ll delve into when we get closer.

DAYDREAM BELIEVER: Looking further into the extended period of the GFS, the first weekend of the State Fair is shown to be similar to the two day prior with chances of showers and storms around and readings in the 80s and 90s. Looking toward the following week, the GFS is hinting at another round of heat and humidity with little to no chances of precipitation. Readings would likely be in the 90s if this were to be true with heat indices at or over 100. There is still some uncertainty regarding this outcome, however it will be monitored in the coming days.

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©2016 Iowa Weather Network

A few Storms, then a Spectacular Weekend Follows

SUMMER HEAT TAKING A BACK SEAT: Another warm day in store today across the state but the chances of showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase as well. This will be with a cold front that is coming in from the west and northwest. This will bring a good chance of precipitation across the western two-thirds of the state during the daylight hours and the rest of the state into the evening and overnight hours. Some storms could be strong to possibly severe. Any severe storms will be isolated at best. Highs today will be in the middle to upper 80s northwest to the lower 90s elsewhere. Heat indices may approach 100 in some areas. Some lingering rain is possible in our southeastern counties early on Friday with cooler air filtering in for the upcoming weekend. We should see readings in the 70s and lower to middle 80s with lower humidity at that time. Earlier in the week there was a chance of some showers across the southern counties of the state with a stalled front in Missouri, however this run shows the front south of Interstate 70, keeping most of the precipitation along and south of US 36 in northern MO.

MORE MORE MORE: Andrea True Connection would be screaming this as we head into next week with winds turning back out of the south and readings inching back through the 80s and 90s once again. A warm front looks to move through Monday into early Tuesday with showers and storms possible, although the coverage is still a bit up in the air. As we look at the beginning of State Fair Thursday and Friday of next week, the GFS is indicating very warm air on the first day of the Fair (next Thursday) with readings in Des Moines in the lower and middle 90s with heat indices easily over 100. There is also a storm system approaching later in the day and into Friday with chances of storms at that time. There is still plenty of uncertainty at this time to delve more into detail. We’ll know more as we get closer.

WEATHER ON A STICK: Looking further through the rest of the model period, the weather pattern looks somewhat active with a chance of showers and thunderstorms from time to time, but nothing too organized at this time. Readings are looking to be warm to hot before cooling off toward the end of the period. Of course this far out on model runs we can only generalize what we “may” see, any minute details won’t be known for at least a week to ten days.

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©2016 Iowa Weather Network

Summer Sun, Something’s Begun

IN THE GOOD OL’ SUMMERTIME: When you think of summer during the depths of winter chill, you think of the days like today and tomorrow will be. Mainly sunny with readings in the 80s and 90s and heat indices up to 100. That’s what we’ll see as any precipitation will stay away from the state until late Thursday night into early on Friday. This will be with a cold front coming in from the northwest. This will bring cooler readings to the state this coming weekend when readings will be in the upper 70s to the middle 80s.

INTO NEXT WEEK: The front is still shown to stall just south of the state over the weekend. This may be close enough to skirt our southern counties with a chance of showers and storms through the weekend. Meanwhile the rest of the state will remain dry. The front is shown to move back north late Sunday night and Monday with another widespread chance at some precipitation at that time. As we look toward the middle of next week and the state of the Iowa State Fair that begins next Thursday, the GFS is indicating that the heat and humidity is looking to return once more with readings possibly back into the 90s with heat indices near or over 100 once again. We couldn’t rule out any shower and storm activity during the afternoon and evening hours during the middle to end of next week, but there’s plenty of time for models to change their thinking. Nevertheless, the first few days of the fair are looking to be warm and humid.

OFF TO THE FAIR: Looking through the rest of the period which takes us through the middle of the fair in Des Moines, the GFS shows a warm and humid weather with chances of showers and storms from time to time. Readings are shown to be in the 80s and 90s with perhaps a slight cooling off toward the end of the period. Too much uncertainty with summertime convection and placement of any possible boundaries precludes any real confidence this far out at this time.

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©2016 Iowa Weather Network

Summer Lovin’ Had Me a Blast!

A SUMMERS WEEK: The heat and humidity will be in store this week along with the chances of showers and storms. Not everybody will see precipitation every day or night but the chances will be around nevertheless. Highs today will be in the 80s to lower 90s with the best chance of precipitation mainly along and east of Interstate 35. Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days this week with the lowest chances of storms. The best chances would likely be across the northern counties of the state. Highs will be in the upper 80s through the 90s. Heat indices will be at or over 100 in some areas Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front is shown to move into the state from the northwest late Thursday into early Friday with a better chance of precipitation at that time. The front looks to stall south of the state this coming weekend which could give southern Iowa a chance of rain Saturday and Sunday before it lifts north Monday

FURTHER ALONG: Looking at next week, the GFS shows a very active pattern with chances of showers and storms around but not steady rains by any means. Southerly winds would indicate that readings will likely be in the 80s and lower 90s across the state but could be held down due to the amount of clouds that could be around. Humidity levels look to be somewhat high as well which could lead to heat indices close to 100 once again. This looks to last into the first few days of the State Fair in Des Moines. After that time frame, warmer weather and drier weather moves in for the first weekend of the fair with a cold front shown dropping in from the northwest toward the end of the period. Speculation pretty much at this point, but something to monitor in coming days.

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©2016 Iowa Weather Network